Affective
forecasting basically refers to an individual’s ability to predict how they
will feel in the future in response to specific events (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). In other words, an
individual predicting they would still feel sad or upset in two weeks after they
had not been chosen to receive an award they thought they deserved exemplifies
the notion of affective forecasting. Importantly, there are two possible
reasons that can be attributed to why individuals tend to hold strong affective
forecasting (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). First, individuals tend to underestimate their ability to psychologically
cope with negative life events. Secondly, individuals have a tendency to focus
so much on that single event that individuals ignore the effect of the numerous
other events going on in their lives.
The
concept of affective forecasting not
only affected me while I was still playing competitive soccer, but also more
recently while watching the NFL. Once the Patriots got to the playoffs I
continued to think of what would happen if the Patriots lost in the playoffs or
super bowl. The sheer notion of my team losing made me upset. I subsequently
tried to block such negative thoughts out of my head, but the idea that my life
would be over if they lost wouldn’t disappear. I thought I would live with
being upset forever. In my mind I thought I would end up like these sad football fans.
However, contrary to my original
thought, once the Patriots did lose to the horrible Baltimore Ravens, after a
couple of days had passed I felt no different than I had before the Patriots had
lost. Moreover, after the Patriots playoff loss I even came to find out that I
felt the same way as my friend who was a Ravens fan.
It
was interesting that once the Patriots lost, I noticed that, I also started to
engage in downward social comparisons (Hakmiller,
1996). The notion of downward social comparisons
means that in lieu of negative information individuals tend to become defensive
and compare themselves to other individuals worse off then themselves. For example, although I thought my life
would be over because the Patriots lost, I started to think about other teams
and was reassured because at least the Patriots made it to the playoffs.
(n=497 words)
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Hakmiller, K.L. (1996). Threat as a determinant of downward comparison. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology (Suppl. 1), 32-39.
Sashary28 (2012, February 5). Crying pats fan. Retrieved January 28, 2013, from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr2EF362Q0k
Thewiz117 (2009, January 21). Giants fan in shambles. Retrieved January 28, 2013, from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-6Tn0Ie-AQ
I can totally relate to all of this, Kara! I am a pretty competitive person also, but strangely enough I tend to be competitive with myself. Does that make any sense? Haha
ReplyDeleteI seem to always be trying to one-up myself in anything I do, especially in school. If I got an A- on an assignment then I feel like I HAVE to get an A on the next one. The problem with this is that I am always my worst critic. Inevitably I don't always achieve my goal and then I am really hard on myself. Fortunately, downward social comparisons come to the rescue! No matter how disappointed I am I can always look at someone who didn't do as well as I did and think "well, it could be worse."
I am also thankful for the inaccuracy of my affective forecasting because I very rarely stay upset about something for as long as I think I will. For example, I was striving for my first 4.0 last semester and I fell just short (3.9). I was really really upset and felt like I was going to feel crappy about it for a long time. However, I was pleasantly surprised that within just a few days I was already able to see things more rationally and be proud of what I had accomplished, instead of feeling bad about what I hadn't. It's pretty cool to realize how resilient we are and how strong the power of our thoughts are!
Oh, and may you reign as the Ben Bag champ forever..but only if I can be on your team next time ;)